Feanor

Predictable as the NBA playoffs have been so far, with the four teams most expected to advance to the conference finals doing as expected, don't count on the next round to be so predictable.  The trendy pick right now is the Pistons and the Lakers, while the Vegas pick is the Celtics and the Lakers.  The common thread to it all?  That the Lakers will be NBA champions when it's all said and done.  I would issue a friendly warning to all those ready to anoint LA right now though.  Yes, they do look like hte favorites at present, but a title is hardly in the bag..in fact, I'd venture to say that each team's chance of winning is well under 50%.  Think back to this past NFL season when everyone and his mom said there was no chance that a team would beat the Patriots.  I realize NFL is different from the NBA, but it was a case where people basically said the playoffs were over before they began and ended up looking rather foolish about it in the end.  When the teams are getting this tough, it's never wise to anoint one above the rest.  As explosive as the Lakers' offense has been these playoffs, they have yet to face a defense as good as San Antonio's, Detroit's, or Boston's.  Not saying they won't beat these teams, but it's going to be a battle. 

And let's face it, barring an injury or a surprise, both conference Finals are going to be battles-close, physical, tense, emotional matchups.  Someone's going to have to come out on top and the media is going to rip whoever falls out of the running.  If the Celtics fall, it will be because Garnett doesn't know how to win in the playoffs.  If the Pistons fall, it will be the disappointment of three ECF losses.  If the Spurs fall, it will be the end of an era for a team that's too old now.  And if the Lakers fall, it will be the horrible luck of missing Bynum for the season and the lack of defense.  Expect to hear commentary like this as the series progress, each time a team wins a game, the other one is going to get ripped.  Another friendly warning though: don't declare any of these series over because one team is up 1-0, 2-0, or even 3-1.  In the tight battles we'll be getting, the saying that "it's not over until the fat lady sings" truly has meaning. 

And in all honesty, I think the time for upsets is over.  The age of heavy favorites is over.  The sleeper and swansong teams are out, leaving four traditional powers remaining.  It really wouldn't surprise me if any of these teams beat any of the others from here on out.  Technically, the Celtics are favored over the Pistons, and the Lakers over the Spurs, but not by much.  If we have Pistons/Spurs in the Finals, I would not be terribly surprised.  Or Celtics/Spurs, or Pistons/Lakers, or Lakers/Celtics.  Any of the scenarios is possible.  Fans of these teams don't have to freak out if their team is sent out (even though I know Celtic and Pistons fans will if they don't go to the Finals).  There's no shame losing from here on out. 

Predictability has been the name of the game thus far, but from here on out that goes out the window.  Whoever wins it all is going to have to earn it, nothing's being handed to anyone on a silver platter.  As much as the media hates to admit it, teams don't go up 1-0 because it praised them or down 1-0 because it criticized them.  Everything is earned---ain't no free lunch.